Uncertainty is mounting within the All Progressives Congress over its preferred consensus strategy ahead of the 2027 elections, with indications that the party may adopt direct primaries in states where agreements fail.
Party sources revealed that deepening rivalries and stalled negotiations across several state chapters are threatening cohesion, forcing the leadership to consider a shift from consensus arrangements to a more open contest.
The development comes as the Independent National Electoral Commission deadline for submission of candidates draws closer, prompting urgency within the party to finalise its primaries timetable.
Multiple chieftains confirmed that the National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, has presented the proposed timetable to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with an official unveiling expected imminently.
While consensus candidates have reportedly emerged in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun states, negotiations remain unresolved in others including Nasarawa, Kwara, Adamawa, Yobe and Bauchi.
A senior party figure disclosed that governors are being given priority in selecting successors, but disagreements in some states may trigger direct primaries.
“The incumbent governors will be allowed to choose their successors. However, where there are disagreements… we will go into direct primaries,” the source said.
The party is also said to be exploring political realignments, including efforts to woo Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, amid reports of a possible power-sharing arrangement.
Across several states, internal divisions and competing ambitions among key figures are complicating consensus efforts. In Bauchi, names such as Yusuf Tuggar, Ali Pate, and Shehu Buba have been linked to the 2027 governorship race.
In Gombe, however, the process appears more structured, with Governor Muhammadu Yahaya reportedly working towards a consensus candidate, though multiple aspirants are still being considered.
Yobe presents a more delicate scenario, as stakeholders remain divided over the implications of consensus. Political activity has intensified ahead of Governor Mai Mala Buni’s exit, with the influence of former governor Ibrahim Gaidam seen as pivotal.
In Nasarawa, consultations are ongoing, though Governor Abdullahi Sule is said to be engaging stakeholders to reach a broadly acceptable position. However, former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu has advocated direct primaries, insisting they offer greater transparency.
Tensions are also rising in Adamawa, where alleged attempts to impose a candidate have sparked resistance. Governor Ahmadu Fintiri warned against imposition, describing it as detrimental to democratic principles.
Similarly, in Kwara, multiple power blocs and entrenched interests are making consensus difficult. Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has distanced himself from claims of backing a successor, emphasising the need for a credible process.
In Borno, political heavyweights including Vice President Kashim Shettima are expected to influence the succession dynamics, though analysts say the likelihood of consensus remains low.
Despite these challenges, party insiders maintain that consensus remains the preferred option. However, they acknowledge that where it fails, direct primaries may serve as a more democratic and stabilising alternative.
“The party cannot afford imposition that leads to rebellion. Where consensus collapses, direct primaries will provide a fair ground for all aspirants,”a source stated.
