World Bank has revised downward Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.1 percent, citing persistent structural challenges and global uncertainties.
This marks a drop from its October 2025 forecast of 4.4 percent for both 2026 and 2027. The Bank also trimmed its 2027 estimate to 4.2 percent, while projecting a modest rise to 4.3 percent in 2028.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender attributed the outlook to relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment levels.
The report identified the services sector—particularly ICT, finance, and real estate—as the main driver of growth in Nigeria’s economy. However, it noted that agriculture and industrial output would likely expand at a slower pace due to enduring structural constraints.
On inflation, the Bank projected a significant decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, with further easing to 10.7 percent by 2028. This trend, it said, reflects the delayed effects of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.
Despite the expected moderation in inflation, poverty levels remain high. The report, however, expressed optimism that poverty would gradually decline as price pressures ease, though at a slower pace due to rising fuel costs linked to tensions in the Middle East.
The institution further noted that higher global oil prices could bolster Nigeria’s fiscal and external balances, though gains may be offset by volatile capital flows amid global economic uncertainty.
“Business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” the report stated.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected at 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025. However, the region’s outlook reflects widespread downward revisions, with about 60 percent of countries—including Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia—seeing cuts to their 2026 forecasts.
Nonetheless, the Bank noted that improved macroeconomic stabilisation, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices continue to support economic activity across the region.
